Are We Leaving the EU or What!

There is a growing noise from some in power that they believe they know better about what the referendum result in June actually meant. Most (all) of it seems to be from those that believe we should not leave at all and since Mrs May has made it clear that she will invoke Article 50 before the end of March 2017 they all seem to have gotten even more excited.

To me this is all quite simple. The question asked of us all was “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” Now there is no ambiguity there in my book. The answer they got was that we should leave the EU. All the talk of remaining in the single market is mute, we leave, simple. There was never a question of remaining in some parts of the EU and denying ourselves the ability to make sovereign decisions.

The news is now full of stories of Hard or Soft Brexit. In the words of Mrs May “Brexit means Brexit”. And it seems bizarre to me that the media have been hounding for and answer of exactly what Brexit means. Brexit means we are leaving the EU. There you go, that was not so difficult. There really is no Hard or Soft about it. What comes after is still open for debate but the mandate given was to leave the EU and then it is up to parliament to secure the best trading position possible, but this position must be from outside of the EU. Why are they all in denial? Leave the EU means leaving the EU. I am no scholar and I do not profess to literary genius but these are not complicated words.

Mr Miliband and Clegg (and plenty of others) seem particularly vocal and believe they have a right to manipulate the result to suit their own interests. All very laughable. They have both proved hugely unpopular amongst the populace and somehow still seem to think that they represent someone. Let me put it in clear words “Nobody that matters cares what you think”.

This week (13 October ’16) there is a court hearing that is trying to prevent Theresa May invoking Article 50 without a vote in the house of commons. At first sight this seemed plausible as invoking it will lead to the overturning of other parliamentary acts and this should not be possible without a subsequent act. Then it occurred to me that there has already been one. The 2015 EU Referendum act went through the commons with a considerable majority and the Conservative manifesto was always that the result would be abided by. It all seems pretty implicit to me. Unless, of course, they all want to admit that they were misled and didn’t realise what they were voting for. In fact, I’m surprised they have not asked for the commons vote to be rerun to overturn the act of running the referendum in the first place. You heard it here first…

I just hope the Judge sees it the same way. Whatever the result it is almost certain to end up in the highest court in the land upon appeal. More red tape that one hopes will not result in delay but must accept that it is the logical conclusion.

If the judge insists that this goes through parliament then we are going to be in for a long waiting game. With the current conservative majority of only 12 seats it will be bumpy to say the least. And the house of Lords is not exactly in favour of exit either. The way I see it is that the only logical conclusion will be a general election, despite promises this will not happen. If we were to vote now the Conservatives would likely end up with a very much larger majority that would make parliamentary accession considerably easier. This is assuming, of course, that the Conservative manifesto pledged to take us out of Europe and there is no absolute guarantee of this. As I said in a previous post, the jury is still out on Mrs May for now. She certainly seems to be making the right noises but in a general election may feel that she has more room to maneuver her policies to gain support.

And Now, Let the Game Commence

Well, it has been a while since I last posted. Lets call it Post-Brexit shock. A period of reflection has been required.

I have to admit that I did not think we would come this far. the odds were not in our favour and pretty much the whole of the establishment was against it. But we are here now and traction seems to have taken hold. If one is to believe the Prime Minister, we are really going to do this!

I must admit that I feared the new Prime Minister would opt for a much softened version of leaving the EU. My expectation was of little change and a Norway type compromise. So, Mrs May’s speech at the Conservative conference was quite something. She made all the right noises and I hope she follows through the way she appears to have started but for me the jury is still out until the words become actions.

This last week, following the speech, has seen some market turmoil. It appears that many in the money markets thought that the UK would not really leave and have now been battered with a great big reality stick. Anyone with half a brain should of seen this coming but, I guess, banker and brain is a bit of an oxymoron.

It seems clear to me that Mrs May is planning to execute the will of the people! Much has been said about hard or soft Brexit of late and many of the more liberal in our society were hoping for the soft version whereby we leave in name but maintain full membership rights and obligations. WTF are they thinking? There was a simple question on the ballot paper: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” and a majority chose the leave option. Leaving the EU always entailed us not paying into the EU, leaving the single market and repealing all EU law and governance. This is what leaving the EU means. A Norway, Switzerland or other concoction would not be leaving the EU at all. It would merely be changing the conditions of membership.

I am currently in Germany, working. The value of my pound here has taken a bit of a bashing so I speak from a personal experience when I say it is worth every penny. I read an article long before the referendum that stated the pound was 10% – 15% overvalued and that sooner or later there would be a correction. It seems we are being corrected. The fall in currency will not have an immediate effect on most people. The price of imported goods will go up and holidays abroad will be a little more expensive but overall I suspect the correction will be a positive thing. If we now leave without a trade deal and face tariffs with the EU it will not really raise the price of UK goods in Europe but will kill the imports from the EU as we will have the exchange rate and the tariffs to add to yesterday’s prices. I’m sure the 800,000 cars we imported from Germany last year will be not be as popular this year.

Interestingly, I am working out here with guys from Italy, Netherlands, Spain and Belgium and generally they have the same tolerance for the EU bureaucrats that I do. But they are not generally expecting to follow our route to freedom. I think they just accept that is the way it is mostly and are so reliant on the EU that they do not see life without it.

The current noises coming from the EU seem to echo the sentiment of the establishment before the referendum with tales of gloom and doom if we do not do as we are told. Talks of punishment for having the audacity to not want to be part of the EU anymore are exactly why many wanted to leave. The EU is demonstrating that it will do whatever it takes to control the masses and has made it clear that the UK must be punished to prevent others rising in protest against the elite few.

I am struggling a little to comprehend the mindset of those in the EU that think they have a right to control their people in such a manner. It can only be a matter of time before the populace realise that they are being controlled and it seems that this will inevitably lead to an uprising. There are a few EU countries that have hard right candidates that are gaining proper strength and whilst some of these (maybe even most) are not conventional politicians that does not seem to be as much of a barrier as it was yesterday.

Don’t get me wrong, I do not favour anarchy as it is not in the best interest of all. The EU elite need to wake up and listen before the whole thing implodes on them. A trading partnership between sovereign states is a good thing but forming a superstate with a ruling elite is really not so different to the way of the royals of old, and look how that ended…